Strateg forteller den brutale sannheten om økonomien

I en ny oppdatert til sine kunder, legger strateg Michael Every ikke noe i mellom når han skal beskrive hvordan høy inflasjon i USA ender opp med å tolkes som 'godt nytt':

There are none so blind as those who will not see: except those who see things that aren’t therebecause italsosuits their book.

Every mener økonomer har konstruert dårlige estimater, som ender opp med å presse aksjekurser opp:

Imagine if agri analysts, instead of making careful, honest forecasts based on the complex factors impacting on supply and demand--and the realpolitik of what producers and consumers are both willing to hear--made deliberately ridiculous forecasts just to push prices higher,so they would get paid more.That’s not how it works there, of course. But it is sadly how naïve economists with mean reverting models combine with shillltastic ‘Dow 36,000!’ types and 0DTE options now adays.

Every skriver at inflasjonen i USA må ledes ned av service-sektoren nå, som ikke er tilfelle nå.

All they think about is when inflation comes down enough for the Fed to cut rates,because some people make more money that way,or sleep better, or both.

Vi tror verden hadde vært bedre om analytikere, økonomer og strateger var like brutalt ærlig som Every er her.

That’s the point: it’s now hard to see any accurate information on anything. But we shouldn’t be blind to that uncomfortable fact, in life or in markets. Rather, we should open our eyes.