Goldman Sachs blant de største optimistene
I en oversikt publisert i dag, viser Goldman Sachs selv at deres estimater for hvorvidt USA ender i en resesjon eller ikke, er en av de mest optimistiske estimatene blant de estimater som hentes inn av nyhetsbyråer.
Our US growth forecast for 2023 remains at a well-above-consensus 1.6% (annual average) and our judgmental 12-month recession probability at awell-below-consensus 35%. We would split the latter number roughly evenly intothe probability that the current banking turmoil—or another near-term shock such asadebt limitcrisis—pushes the economy into recession in the next quarter or two,and the probability that upside inflation surprises force the Fed to deliver moremonetary tightening that raises recession risk in late 2023/early 2024.
Goldman opererer med fire scenarier:
